From the Danish prime minister to former pandemic advisors to the U.S. president, more and more government officials are calling for a different approach to the coronavirus.
They want it to be accepted as a part of daily life that can be managed, not as a deadly scourge that requires lockdowns and strict preventive measures.
In other words, they're urging that COVID-19 be treated as an "endemic" disease rather than a pandemic.
But what's the difference between a pandemic and an endemic disease?
The term "pandemic" is used to describe a global outbreak that triggers unpredictable waves of disease.
Diseases are called "endemic" when they occur regularly in specific areas according to established patterns. Endemic diseases are consistently present, but they spread at a predictable rate and can be managed by communities.
Influenza, also known as the flu, is an example of an endemic disease. Despite the discovery of effective treatments and vaccinations, influenza is still prevalent in the global community. Malaria is also considered endemic in parts of the world.
An endemic disease is no less harmful than a pandemic. It's still dangerous, even deadly.
In February, Denmark became the first country in the European Union to lift all domestic restrictions imposed to curb the spread of COVID-19, announcing that it'll no longer be considered a "socially critical sickness."
As a result, the indoor mask mandate, the use of a "COVID pass" for restaurants, bars, and other indoor venues, and the legal requirement to self-isolate in the event of a positive test will be eliminated.
However, the World Health Organization (WHO) says that redefining the coronavirus as an endemic illness is still “a ways off.”
“We still have a huge amount of uncertainty and a virus that is evolving quickly,” Catherine Smallwood, an infectious diseases expert in the agency’s European headquarters in Copenhagen, Denmark, said earlier this year.
Who will decide when the coronavirus is endemic?
According to health experts, most countries will make that decision themselves, depending on how the coronavirus spreads within their borders.
Wealthy countries that have more resources to fight COVID-19 will be more likely to begin treating the disease as endemic first.
Technically, the WHO doesn't declare pandemics. A global health emergency is its highest alert level so the pandemic is expected to be over when the health authority declares that the coronavirus is no longer a global emergency. But the criteria for that decision aren't clear.
What does endemic mean for the travel industry?
The call to define COVID-19 as an endemic disease has resonated with the global travel and tourism community, which is calling for a relaxation of travel restrictions.
The travel and tourism sector is among the industries most affected by the pandemic. According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), 2020 was the "worst year on record" for tourism, with international arrivals down 73%.
Data from UNWTO shows that international tourism increased by 4% in 2021. There were around 415 million international tourist arrivals last year, compared to about 400 million in 2020. But the figure was still 72% lower than in 2019 before the pandemic.
"The pace of recovery remains slow and uneven across world regions due to varying degrees of mobility restrictions, vaccination rates, and traveler confidence," the agency says.
Travel and tourism recovery
Travel and tourism experts argue that redefining the coronavirus as an endemic disease will help the industry recover more quickly.
“The tourism and hospitality industries have not only had to cope with lower travel demand over the last few years, but also a large amount of uncertainty amidst a constantly-changing regulatory environment,” Hermione Joye, Google’s sector lead for travel in the Asia-Pacific region, was recently quoted as saying by Skift.
“Moving to an endemic phase will hopefully provide a stable and more predictable environment for these industries to grow—not just in terms of revenues, but also in their ability to attract, retain, and train the talent needed to take the industry to new heights.”
Joye says the switch to endemic could also help reduce travel-related friction currently associated with confusion over entry and quarantine regulations, costly testing, insurance requirements, and more.
Although requirements such as vaccination certificates will remain in place for the foreseeable future to help travelers feel safe, the transition to the endemic phase could lead to a less complex and more seamless travel experience.
“When I use the word pandemic, I think of the two years where we sheltered in place, but endemic is very similar to what I’m doing now—traveling for business as an entrepreneur, but also for vacation and seeing friends and family that I’ve missed,” Jennifer Wilson-Buttigieg, a co-president of Valerie Wilson Travel, a travel consulting company, told the New York Times.
Now let's take a closer look at what the coronavirus morphing into an endemic disease means for travel in the long term.
Proof of vaccination or symptom questionnaires could become the norm
Experts say proof of vaccination or COVID-19 symptom questionnaires could become the norm, at least for international travel.
Currently, several vaccinations are required for travel to certain parts of Africa, from malaria to yellow fever. So it wouldn't be surprising if COVID -19 vaccination requirements remain in place forever.
“Lower- and middle-income countries that don’t have… excellent tracking systems or easy access to vaccinations could still have a vaccination mandate to protect their populations,” says Pia MacDonald, senior director of applied public health research at RTI International, according to TPG.
Brad Bowman, chief medical officer at Healthgrades, told TPG that symptom questionnaires could replace a vaccination mandate and be added to check-in and boarding.
Testing mandates could go away or be seasonal
Some experts such as MacDonald believe travelers could be required to get tested only at certain times of the year when COVID-19 cases rise, similar to influenza.
“The endemic phase is going to include this emergence of variants that are more or less dangerous… so there will be an ebb and flow of change that we will have to get used to in the same way we have for influenza.”
The senior director of applied public health research at RTI International also says testing is likely to take on a whole new meaning.
Instead of relying on COVID-19 tests, governments around the world could rely more on biometric screening and other modern methods to detect disease symptoms. For example, your temperature is automatically taken when you enter China.
“As a global travel community, we’ve built out more infrastructure for testing and monitoring,” MacDonald said. “More of that is likely to come to screen for [COVID-19], future variants, and new viruses.”
Masks could remain a part of travel by air
The CEO of TAP Air Portugal, Christine Ourmières-Widener, was recently quoted by Skift as saying that wearing masks during flight is here to stay "forever."
Echoing a similar view, Bowman says “a significant number of staff and passengers will choose to wear masks.”
However, she doesn't think it will be mandatory in the future. MacDonald is of the opinion that masks, just like the testing mandate, will be required at certain times of the year.
Only time will tell which measures and requirements will remain a permanent part of the air travel experience.
